The Startup President: Part IV
In which a young upstart triumphs in the first round of presidential voting thanks to a canny strategy and a healthy dose of political good fortune.
The following is an excerpt from a book project about life in modern France. This week, I’m going to publish in 6 parts a chapter I wrote about my various encounters with Emmanuel Macron and his 2017 campaign for president. Most of this is based on stories for VentureBeat and the Los Angeles Times. Some of the writing has been recycled elsewhere, so you may recognize snippets. But with the first round of the French elections approaching this Sunday, it felt like a good time to look back at the last campaign that transformed Macron from an obscure figure to an unlikely president who continues to confound the French.
For all of Macron’s planning and strategy, he also benefited from some extraordinarily good luck as the campaign season picked up in the fall of 2016. Virtually everything that could go his way, did go his way.
Much of the drama initially focused on the fortunes of Hollande. His left-then-centrist government posturing, a series of terrorist attacks, and the stagnant economy had steadily driven his approval rating down to 4% in one poll. Yes, 4%. Polls showed him heading toward an epic thrashing in the spring election against pretty much any candidate who could draw a breath. With little hope of re-election, Hollande bowed to the inevitable and announced in early December that he would not seek re-election. The Socialist Party would have to hold a primary to choose a candidate.
Meanwhile, there was a growing consensus that former prime minister Alain Juppé, a relative moderate, would win the primary for the conservative Les Republicans over the likes of Sarkozy who was attempting a political comeback. In doing so, Juppé would be the favorite to be elected president. But over the fall, his milquetoast presence failed to elicit much enthusiasm and he drifted down in the polls. Another contender, former prime minister François Fillon rose. Fillon promised to make massive cuts to the French government and to increase the retirement age, while also promoting socially conservative issues like voting against gay marriage and promising to repeal gay adoption rights. In late November, he won the primary in a mild shocker, and in the process, the Republicans selected one of the candidates furthest to the right. Nevertheless, Fillon was now odds on favorite to be the next president.
The Socialist Party remained hopelessly divided between traditional liberals and centrists. In their own primary, the Socialists chose the more progressive Benoit Hamon over another moderate. Even further to the left, firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon was leading a Bernie-Sanders like insurgent candidacy under his own movement dubbed France Unbowed. And ever on the right was extremist stalwart Marine Le Pen, blaming immigrants for France’s woes and bashing globalization and the European Union.
In short, this cast of characters lined up perfectly for Macron. The two major parties picked candidates at their relative extremes. And they were fenced in on each side by two even more politically radical candidates, destined to split the far left and far-right voters. It was a fortuitous combination that left wide open the center of French politics. The very spot Macron had targeted from the beginning.
Then, Macron caught yet another break. Not long after the Republican primary, frontrunner Fillon found himself engulfed in a scandal over whether he had used €500,000 in parliamentary funds to pay his British wife, Penelope, over eight years for an assistant job that was fake. “Penelopegate” dogged Fillon throughout the spring, to the point where many in his party lobbied for him to step aside in favor of Juppé. Fillon pushed on even as an investigation continued to make headlines.
The French presidential vote is held over two rounds. After the first round, the top two candidates advance to a second face-off. On April 23, 2017, Macron did what was unthinkable just a few months earlier by finishing first with 24.01% of the vote, followed in second place by Le Pen with 21.30%. Fillon came in third with 20.01%, followed by Mélenchon at 19.58%.
At a victory party, kissing his wife on stage, Macron spoke to his adoring supporters. “In one year, we have entirely changed the political situation in France,” Macron said. “I know exactly what task lies ahead for me. This election has opened the door to optimism, to a new path for hope for Europe, and the world."
The standings in that first round delivered the final boost to Macron’s insurgent campaign. Had he faced Fillon on his right or Mélenchon on his left, he may have been in a tighter race in the second round. Instead, he faced Le Pen, who has a core base of extreme-right supporters but otherwise was still widely detested. She tried to make a case for broader support by immediately echoing many of the criticisms of Macron leveled from both the left and right: He was a banker and a lapdog for corporations, and he wanted to put global interests ahead of France’s needs. “At stake in this election is the savage globalization that has put our civilization in danger,” Le Pen said. “This reign, it is that of the king of money.”
The pundits in the French press continued to puzzle over Macron’s rise. He had, after all, failed to follow the accepted rules for advancing in French politics. He was too young. He had never been elected to public office. Never even run a campaign for any office. And just what was this whole En Marche! thing? Other critics chirped that he was a lightweight who was merely recycling old ideas, and who may not be up to the daunting challenge ahead of pressing a reform agenda in a country that stubbornly resists change of any kind.
No matter. A poll after the first round showed Macron heavily favored, with 62%. In the face of rising populism across Europe, the election of Trump in the U.S., and Brexit, the election now became a case of unifying to stop the populist Le Pen. France’s largest union, the CFDT, as well as the Communist Party, and the candidates from both of France’s two largest parties, the Socialist and Republican, strongly endorsed Macron and called on supporters to vote to block Le Pen.
Macron’s unabashedly pro-E.U. stand made his victory resonate beyond France’s borders to those around the world looking for a globalist champion.
Following his first-place finish, Macron received congratulations from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and E.U. foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini following a victory speech Macron made from a podium standing next to a French and EU flag. “To see the flags of France and the EU salute Emmanuel Macron’s result shows hope and the future of our generation,” Mogherini wrote in a tweet.